Paired-Uniform Scoring: Implementing a binarized scoring rule with non-mathematical language

Working Paper - Oct 2017

Abstract

We outline a mechanism for eliciting probabilities using two uniform random numbers that is equivalent to the binarized scoring rule (BSR). Though our implementation is simple to describe and has a non-mathematical explanation, it retains the desirable theoretical features of the BSR. Moreover, we show that a discretized version with evenly-spaced reporting intervals can be implemented in the field with no more equipment than a pair of dice.

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